Thursday 10th September 2026
We head to Doncaster on Thursday afternoon for the first day of the Betfred St Leger Festival. Our analyst has taken a look through the eight races on the card and highlighted a couple of key angles from our pre-race data.
3:00 Betfred Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes (Group 2)
We have only seen FAIRY GLEN once since her heroics in Dubai earlier in the year, but there is a definite case to be made for this race setting up perfectly for the Crisford’s mare. As you can see from our pre-race summary, her late speed figures in the Dubai Gold Cup are some of the fastest figures on offer in this 9 runner field. That is perhaps not surprising given that she won over 9 furlongs at Meydan in February, but her above average stride frequency figure is the key. She has won 3 races over trips of 12 furlongs or more and in each of them she has recorded a finishing speed of 108% or more.
Consent seems to be the most likely pace angle in this race but there isn’t an out and out front runner in the field and so it seems probable to say that this race is likely to be run to suit. If we assume that the Good to Soft going description remains accurate on Thursday afternoon, then the expected time figure for this race from the TPD database would be 3:08.12. When looking back at the results over the 1m 6 furlong trip or further in the last 5 years, there have been 23 races when the going description has ranged between Good through to Soft. The average speed recorded by the winners has ranged between 35.5 mph (Jan Brueghel) to 30.5 mph (Carzola) with a median average of 34 mph.
On that basis, the key statistic is to look at the time it takes for the leader to cover the opening mile. If the time taken is above 1:57:00, then it would suggest that the pace has yet to develop and as a result, Fairy Glen and her sprint finish may well come into play. Her fitness does need to be taken on trust and the Crisford’s current form would raise a few question marks, but if she is ready to run her race, there is an obvious case to be made that she will have too much speed for her rivals if the early pace is sedate.
In-Running Angle; Back Fairy Glen if the opening mile takes 1:57.00 or more and hedge the position, as appropriate, later in the race.
4:10 Meadowhall X Flannels Beauty Bar Nursery
There is a race to be won with Primal, who is the only maiden in this field. The step up to the mile trip should really suit Andrew Balding’s charge, who recorded the longest average stride length in the field on his latest start at Newbury (24.98 ft). He was ideally placed on that occasion by Oisin Murphy, but simply couldn’t move his big frame quickly enough in the closing stages and his average stride frequency figure of 2.07 per second in the final furlong ranked 13th of 14.
He still clocked a final furlong split of 12.80s (3rd) which was just 0.22s slower than the winner. He will win races and is probably next year’s horse, but this should suit.
However, as our pre-race graphic shows, Primal may struggle to match Richard Hannon’s KEEP GRATING. His winning time of 1:24.44 was under the TPD expected time figure at Yarmouth and having chased the long time leader (Telegraphic) for the best part of 2 furlongs, Keep Grating eventually got on top and he was certainly doing his best work at the finish as he clocked the fastest final furlong time and run-out speed in the field. Both his average stride frequency and stride length figures were at Yarmouth were above the expected average figures for a winner over this course and distance at Doncaster. Now that he has managed to get his head in front, an opening mark of 77 could be very generous based on our stride data.
In Running Angle; Back Keep Grating and hedge the position, as appropriate, later in the race.
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the At The Races RESULTS page.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.